Vegas, Day 1 and 2

Hello all. I've had people giving me guff, so I guess I better get to posting. Boats gave a pretty good account of the week, but here's my thoughts and spin.

We arrived early on Sunday, getting out of Cincy on a 9am flight. Luckily, the IP had a room available when we arrived at 11am, so we were able to drop our stuff off and head out.

We go to meet up with a friend and hope to play in the Venetian in their noon tourney. No luck, they are down for their Deepstacks event. Record fields of 900+. Amazing setup. Unfortunately, this time around I never do make it back to play in the 4/8 Omaha Hi/Lo game. Such is life.

Since Dave and his wife have a rental car, we are lucky enough to have a ride up to Binion's to play in their Poker Classic. Sunday is a $150+10 NLHE game. I get into a good comfortable spot and am doing pretty well. We get to level 6 and I'm still average stack or just below. Sitting directly across from me is a Joe Hachem look alike. The guy has the glasses, the "soul patch", the long sleeve, black, ratty t-shirt. It's so sad it's kind of funny. Anyway, he has been hammering on my BB for a few rounds. I finally played back with JTc and shoved over the top when I was getting short, and he called. My str8 hit and he doubled me up. So we have a history when we get to my bust-out hand.

The blinds are up to 300/600 and I have about 8400. Hachem-wannabe again opens in MP for 1800. Folded around to me and I smooth-call after finding 66 in the BB. Flop is a wonderful J J 6. Gin! I check as this guy C-bets everything. True to form, he bets out 3500 into the 3900 pot. I think, then check-raise all in. He beats me into the pot and slams his KK down, saying "I got you this time!" My response "Not this time, I'm ahead sir." And table my 6s full. The poker gods obviously hate my response and deliver a J on the river, giving him the bigger FH. GG me.

We stick around and get onto the list for the 1/3 PLO8 game to warm-up for the action on Monday, and Mike is ahead of me on the list, so he gets the first seat. I sit in the 1/2 NLHE game and drop 100 to the rock in seat 9 that, when he plays a hand, refuses to fold. I raise to $10 with AQc and he calls in position. The flop is 7c9cTh. I bet $20, he calls. Turn is the Js, giving me the OESD and nut flush draws. I bet $40, he calls. River is a blank and I bet $40 one more time. He insta-calls and tables 7s5s. Bottom pair, no draw. Nice. I can't find a hand versus him and get called up to the PLO8 game.

I slowly start to creep up, but the jet lag is hitting me. Finally stand up and take a walk to see what's going on in the NLHE tourney, and see the Hachem-wannabe has been doing good work with my chips, and is 3 out of the money. Just one hand and I could have been there, but that's poker. I wanted the call and just got unlucky. I head back and Mike looks like he's ready to go as well, so we call it a night. I count and end up down for the session about $30, so I made back $70 of what I'd lost in NLHE.

Not a good start, but I'm not too upset. I played well and was thinking about hands instead of just reacting. I took my time, weighed my options, and didn't go on tilt, even when I was getting the worst of it. I felt good about the day on Monday, where we would be playing in the PLO8$210 at Binion's.

Day 2
Well, I try to sleep, but I keep waking up. First time is 4am (7am eastern). I manage to doze on and off until about 7am and finally give up. Will be a long day if I FT the Binion's, but I just can't sleep, so I get up. Mike is up too, so we shower, and hit the strip. Breakfast at BK next door at O'Sheas food court, then down to MGM on the monorail for some early NLHE. Mike loves the room and always does well there, and I haven't played in it so I decide to give it a shot. I originally at at a different table than Mike, but I do get a table change as there is an all-in-or-fold guy that is a pain sitting to my right. When I move, I sit with $200 and bleed, but have some great reads. Here is the big one.

I have AcAd in MP and the UTG guy opens for $12. I smooth call (yep, there's my first mistake) and we get 5 in to the flop. Flop is AhKjTh. The SB that was a caller leads out for $2 and we all laugh. The pot is $60. Then UTG does something that starts to smell fishy. He calls. I decide to raise to $17 to see where I'm really at. Next player re-raises to $67. Button Calls. SB folds, surrendering his HUGE lead out bet....and then UTG smooth calls again. Now I'm in full-blow spidey sense tingling mode. Mike is to my right so I show him my AA, and then muck. He's going nuts. Says I'm a moron, that the pot odds say I have to call and hope to hit my boat. Turn is the 2c and UTG checks. The $67 raiser now shoves for $80 more, button and UTG both just call. River is another 2 and Mike whispers "See, you should have stayed". I say "nope, that's not good enough". UTG checks and button checks. UTG goes nuts, saying "How could you not bet there!!!???!!" He's berating the button. Then he shows his QhJh for the flopped Royal. Spidey sense was right and I was drawing dead. All-in shows his monster ATo, and button mucks what he claims is a small flush.

I add another $100 after a bit and get Ac4c in the BB. MP raises (button from the Royal hand) and 3 call ahead. I call and the flop is two clubs. I check, one bet, MP raiser raises, then back to me. I call. Bettor goes all in and Button calls. I have invested about $45 at this point, and debate mucking. I show Mike again and he says "Do the math before you muck!" and the dealer gives him a warning. I don't feel it and think I should fold, but then I do the math and there's $140ish out there. I have $140 left, and the all in has me covered as does the other player. I'm getting the right price and reluctantly call. The shover has top set (I think it was 8s) and they hold, and I'm felted. Mike is up, so we decide to cut and run to Binion's for the 2pm. He graciously pays for the cab with his winnings, and I'm not happy, I'm already down a couple of hundred and it's only day 2. Yikes!

We decide to prop bet on the entrants in the PLO8. I set the number at 215, and Mike takes the under. I hardly ever lose prop bets, but of course, the final count is 207. Sigh. The bad luck continues.

I had a blast in the PLO8 tourney. There were several folks at my table that I've played with online, and didn't even start talking to the guy to my right until the second hour. Turns out he and I played quite a bit over on FT when I was playing NLO8 over there, trying out a short-stack shove stategy developed by Predator06 in the micro-games. He knows Pred as well and we got along well online, so it's nice to have a "friend" at the table. He plays professionally, and does pretty well. I'm up and down a bit and finally pick up A25Kds on the button. My "friend" raises and I re-pot, he puts me all in and I call. I scoop the hand and this doubles me up to about 16k with 400/800 blinds. After a bit, we get a few other pros at the table. Whothedonk and RedRaider80 sit. If you don't know Red, his real name is Justin Phillips and he's the guy that hit the Royal Flush versus quad Aces in the 2008 WSOP. He's a blast and was fun to play with for a few hours.

I stay ahead of the average and finally take out Matt (the "friend") when we have about 40 left. The Top 27 pay. I get a call from Bleu, and he's on the way over with his sister, who just turned 21 on Sunday and was in celebrating. He shows up and says hello and heads off to the 1/3 PLO8 game. Then, I have some bad luck. My nut flush/nut low draw misses, and I'm down to about 18k. I manage to hang on into the money and lose another hand, but get out cheaply and am down to 12k. Finally pick up AA46 and double to 24k. We get down to the final 2 tables, and I finally get it all in with A25J and lose to A3QJ when he flops his Q. We got it all in PF, and I'm out in 17th place. I cash for $310 and things are finally turning around. Mike had already caught a ride back to the hotel, so I go to get on the 1/3 PLO8 list to play with Bleu. I go to sweat him as I'm 8th on the list. I manage to meet up with Truthiness27, a mod on the 2+2 Omaha Hi/Lo forum, and he's on the list for 1/3 as well.

While sweating Bleu, I see at least one other 2+2er at the table, MegaDisgruntled. The two of them got involved in absolutely the biggest pot I've ever seen in a 1/3 PLO8 game. 4 players, 3 of which get all in preflop. Bleu has the 3rd biggest stack at $530ish and Mega has them all covered. The pot is easily $1500-1600 preflop. The short stack shows A246, the second player (who was a donkey from the night before, information that I gave Blue earlier in his session) has K874, Mega has A2xx, and Bleu has AA3Q. Flop is 35Q, turn is the 7, and the river is a Q. Bleu and Mega chop the K874, and then the short stack 3/4ers the main pot with Mega. It was nuts, but the dealer did a great job keeping the pots straight and getting all the money chopped and done in about 2 minutes.

I stick around until about midnight, but it doesn't look like they are going to start a 2nd table, even with 9 on the list. Tru decides to leave, and I give it up too. I take the Duece back to the IP and Mike's been sacked out for a bit. I hit the sack and hope that my luck has turned.

Thanks for stopping by. I'll have Days 3 and 4 up later in the week. I'll cya at the tables.

Mike Matusow has nothing on me...

Hello readers. Time for my monthly-ish post. Thanks for stopping by. Today's topic: running bad. Being the tail of the probability curve. How bad? Come along and find out.

I decided to bring out a cash game graph. Granted, I play more touneys than cash, but these will give you an idea of how I've been running....



This first one is all of my PLO8 hands for the year. Looks like I've made some bad plays and should be down, but I'm about 3bb/100 below expectation. So, let's see what my all-in equity looks like, shall we?

Yikes! Looks like I'm getting all in ahead, and still losing. Not a lot of hands, really, since I'm playing Pot Limit, but still running -3.5 behind expectation. Yuck!

There is also a "probability graph" that it looks like I'm running at the low end of the normal distribution, and I'm about 1 SD off the mean. That's bad. I'm in the bottom 33.3%.

So what made me decide to pull up these graphs? I've had 2 pretty brutal live sessions as well.

Our company gives us Good Friday off every year, so I decided, as a true gamboooler should, to use that day to hit the boat and play some poker. I play at the Argosy in Lawrenceburg, and they have a tourney at 11:15am. I got up and was on my way in plenty of time, but barely missed the start due to a wreck on the interstate and ended up #5 on the alternate list. Argosy has done a great job recently and their tourneys have a ton of play. I didn't expect to get in as the stacks are deep to start, but I stuck around and sweated a guy I sometimes play live with in a home game. I was on the 1/3 NLHE list, and wanted to get some play in. He was doing decently, and nearing the end of the first hour I wasn't going to take a spot even if they opened one up, so I grabbed a pager and went up for some lunch.

Came back and I was #2 on the list. They announced the start of a new table, so I went to buy in and grabbed a seat.

This was the most brutal 3.5 hours of poker I have ever played. I won exactly 1 hand. In 3.5 hours. I was coolered 4 times with a pocket pair vs higher pair situation. None of my draws got there. AK sooooooted, flop 2 of my suit and a gutshot draw. Pair my A on the turn. Lose when a blank hits the river to JTo. Play a middle suited connector in position with a lot of limpers. Stright and flush draws. Nothing gets there. I mix up my play and try a few strong bets in position, some of them bluffs at boards that I represent I have a good hand. Get called down by bottom 2 pair. AA runs into J6 (who played because it was SOOOOTed, he states) who gets 2 pair on the turn and flushes the river. I finally win a hand after rebuying for $200 and I'm down to my last $41. I open-shove after 2 limpers from the Cutoff with A-6 SOOOOTed. Yeah, I'm probably steaming a bit. It holds up to the BB who calls me with 86 offsuit. Yeah, it was that kind of game and I couldn't win a hand. I tightened up after a bit since the table was so loose, and I still couldn't catch a break. Final hand I have AJ hearts and run into KK. Flop is J 8 4, no hearts. No A on the turn or river and I'm done. Worst run at the boat ever, but it happens to everyone, right?

So I shake it off, come home, and play some online poker. Lose 2 buyins at $25 PLO8. I give up. Decide to wait on another day.

Then, last night is my poker league night. I'm out of the running for the main prize, but there is still prize money to be won every night. I play tight, aggressive. I mix it up with some hands. Slide from the initial 10k down to about 4.5k, and then start to see some chips move my way. A few well-timed bluffs, steal some blinds when we hit the 150/300 and 200/400 levels, and I'm back to about 12k. Then I have T2 on the button and decide to raise again. The BB has a lot of chips and decides to see a flop. Flop is T 8 2 with 2 clubs. He leads out 800. I call. Turn is the 6s. He leads out 800. I debate a raise to 2800 but smooth call. River is a club. He bets 1200. I raise to 2500 and he insta-calls and tables 87 clubs. Should have raised that turn, but I was trying to get max value on my 2 pair. Such is life.

I make the FT with about 6k in chips. Blinds are up to 300/600. I float for a while, then manage to pick up AA UTG with only 5700 left. Blinds are 400/800 and I raise to 2400. Folded to a tight player in MP who smooth-calls. Folded around and we see a flop of Q Q 3. I put my last 3300 in and MP goes in the tank. Now I know that he's got a pair, as this player is very tight and would fold anything but a pair here. I go into weakness mode and give him a stare. He says "Man, I think you have AK. Or AJ. " Please! Call me! I look away and he thinks for another 30-40 seconds. Counts out a call and he has me covered by about 1500. He'd be crippled if he's wrong. He finally calls and I show him the AA. He tables 66 and no 6 hits (surprisingly!) on the turn or river and now I have just under 13k. I find AhJh on the button a few hands later when an UTG shoves his last 5200 and Mr 66 calls. Folded to me. I think and make the call. The open-raiser has QT suited and Mr 66 has A6 off. Flop is J J 8 and I take out 2 more. We are now into the points, but not the money yet. The last man to go out loses to the CL and we are in the money.

Final 4 have me versus the big stack with 2 smaller stacks. The 2 shorties are still in the running for the title as was the 5th place finisher so it means something to these guys. The CL is the guy who hit the flush vs me earlier in the T2 hand. I have about 30k, he has about 50k, and the other two guys have about 15k each. I'm in a good spot to win at least 150, if not the 250 if I can make some moves and get even with the CL.

My BB, and I find AdQd. UTG folds, and the CL is the button and calls 2k. Blinds are 1k/2k with a 200 ante. SB calls. I raise to 7k. Button calls and SB folds. Flop is J T 9 with 2 hearts. I bet out 8k. Button insta-raises to 16k. He does this when he has an overpair or a made hand. I think about it and he's played overpairs like this more. There's 37k in the pot. And I have to call 8k. If he's got KK or AA i'm about 30%. The call is good. If he's got QQ I'm probably a bit better. If he's got JJ, TT, or 99 I'm down to 25%. But overall a call here is correct. That leaves me with 7300. I probably should shove, but I call.

Turn is a beautiful 8c. I shove, not caring if he calls or not. He thinks about it and says "I guess you have the straight, but I call". I show him the bad news and he tables Kh Kc. The UTG player says "Crap, I mucked Q3". That leaves 2 Qs for him to hit. And guess what he pulls out on the river? Yep. Qc. GG me. I haven't had a hand tilt me in quite a while. I usually shrug it off and say "That's poker" and move on. This one had me steaming. I'm glad I didn't have more chips as I would have been reckless. I just lost a 60K+ pot, not to mention about $110 in real money (at least) on a 2-outer. I would have had a good chip lead, but instead now this guy has about 80k in chips and takes out the other two in about 8 hands. I get $40 for my troubles.

Other guys are talking about "How sick was that beat?" and "He couldn't fold there!". Why can't he fold there? I've repped the draw or a set with my betting. The draw gets there and I shove. Sure, there is ~53k in the pot and he needs to just call 7300. But if I have what I've repped, and even have just a set of 9s, he's still drawing to 6 outs on the river. Rough math is 6 outs makes 12%. 12% of the pot is ~6200, and he's calling 11oo more. He doesn't have the right price there. If I have the straight (which is what it looks like I have) he's in worse shape. He's down to about 6% (and 4% if we can believe UTG folded a Q, but we don't know that when he's making this decision). Granted, knocking out a player means a lot here. But I've repped the hand I have and he knew I had it (he even said "I guess you have the straight? I'll call"). And STILL made the call. He can fold and still be comfortably in 2nd place and make a run. That is what tilted me more than anything.

So, again, I'm WAYYYY DOWN in the tail of the distribution. Mike, eat your heart out. You've got nothing on me. You're not the "unluckiest man in poker".

Enough whining and moaning. I think I've shaken off the tilt for now. Time to get back to the tables. Hopefully, I can put together a nice run and head out to Vegas with some folks around WSOP time. My BR has taken quite the hit this year, so it is still up in the air.

Meanwhile, I'll cya at the tables.

Poker < Life

Hello all, thanks for stopping by for a gander. It's been a while, but I fell off the horse there for a bit. Real life stepped in, as sometimes it tends to do.

I haven't had time to play much lately. I've still been grinding at O8, but mostly the Stars 8:30 Rebuy and SnGs. Cash, I'm back to NLHE. I'm running badly in O8, but NLHE has taken up some of the slack. I just haven't had time. The wife broke her right leg slipping on the ice in one of our snow dumps in Feb, and I've had to be chauffer/dad/cook/maid for the last month and a half. Work picked up quite a bit, so I've been swamped. That hasn't left a lot of time at poker. I've played the rebuy 4-5 times with a cash, and been running badly in the $16 SnGs. I dropped back to the $6.50s for a bit while I rebuild.

But now the itch needs some scratching. Not playing as much has given me some time to sit and thik about where I want to go with poker. I still am not sure, but when I figure it out, you will all start to hear from me again. I need to get back.

In the meantime, it's my favorite time of year. March Madness. My buddy Boats has everyone over for a "between the tourneys" game on Thurs and Fri. I've made it a tradition to take the two days off every year, and this is no exception. Boats is doing something different this year with HORSE on Thursday and No Limit Omaha on Friday. Even if I don't win, it will be great to get back into some live action. And NLO. My oh my. I might just try to fold into the money :)

I also have joined a poker "league" and have managed to scrape up a few points and some cash. Halfway through the season and I'm stuck in the middle of the pack. One gent is out in front and it looks like he'll win the top prize ($2500 for a WSOP prelim and $2500 for travel/accomodations). We will get back some cash if he makes it deep, and he's definitely got the skills to get there. I'm hoping to get to Vegas with predator and see some old friends in Bleu, Virge, Lusky, and I'm bringing the German, again this year. So look for me in Vegas sometime in June. If pred bails, I'll probably go with the guys from the poker league.

That's it for now. Just a quick post. Hopefully I'll cya at the tables.

Back on game...hopefully

Well, I'm at a crossroads. I really enjoy playing O8 but I've been beat up pretty well over the last several months. I made the attempt to move from PL to Limit thinking that would help, and only made the slide worse.

Everyone goes through rough patches. I quit posting here as well, just taking my lumps and hoping to come out the other side. I'm hoping that 2009 will start better than 2008 has been, and I took my first step into the "new year" today. Yeah, I know it isn't here yet, but I'm on vacation until Jan 5th, so I'm in a fuzzy zone hear. Let me have my delusions, okay?

Being off work, I decided to head down to the boat (Argosy, IN) to play in their Noon bounty tourney. I've played it a few times in the last couple of years. Early this year, on MLK I played it and was first out. I was hoping to improve on that finish, especially with the 11 month hiatus.

I started out slow. There were a few active players at our table and we had one bounty in the first hour. Lots of raise-and-take-it preflops. Some flops that were not contested. Only 4-5 hands made it to showdown. Then, when we moved into hour 2, the table started to move. I took the second bounty soon after crippling a guy with Q9 vs KT when I made a Q-hi straight. Then the someone finished him off with....Q9 vs his A8. I don't think he took it well, but bad luck happens. Soon after, the same gentlemen that took out A8 with his Q9 took out one more and our table broke. After starting with 46, there were 29 left. I had about 4.5k in chips and the average was about 5k. We started with 3k in chips.

The second table didn't have a lot of action. The highlight for me was the chip race at the end of hour 2. I lost that too. I did manage to stay afloat and even move up a little. I had just under 6k when we moved to the final 2 tables. With 19 left, I was the third largest stack (yeah, with just under 6k). There were a bunch of us between 4 and 6k, so it was going to be a grind.

I watched a few hands and the guy next to me made a comment about the big stack being unable to fold. The guy had about 22k in chips and was doubling up the 2 shorties at the table on a regular basis. He was 4 to my right, and I was just hoping to have something when he started raising again. Finally, he popped it to 1600 PF when we were at 400/800 blinds. I looked down to find 3h3d. I have about 9k. I called, as did the SB and an EP limper. Flop was 3 6 8 rainbow. I checked. EP limper checked. Big stack continuation bets 2k. SB folds and I smooth call, hoping limper comes along for the ride. Unfortunately, he folds. The turn is a 9. I check. Big stack bets 1500. I check-raise to 5k. He says "all in". I stop and think. He's made this play with 2 pair once and top pair once. I start to see monsters under the bed and think I might have stepped in it and he's holding something crazy. Like T7. After 15 or 20 seconds of studying him, I think he's getting nervous about me taking my time. I finally decide it is do-or-die time and call off my last 3600. He flips up K9 for TP, not so good kicker and he's drawing dead. Suddenly, I have the big stack with about 23-24k. I vow not to become the bully and continue to play the poker that got me the big stack. I have fallen into the "calling" trap that the big stack just got into myself once or twice.

I get hit with the deck a bit and chip up to about 40k with 12 left. There's 138k in play, so I have almost 1/4 of the chips, and realize that I can definitely make it to the money as long as I don't get unlucky and don't get stupid. I have 2 whole bounties when we get to the final table. The chip leader that I got with my 3s is still around and has made a comeback to about 12k.

We draw for seats and I get to see a few hands with the new folks before I get hit with any blinds. The table has become a little tight as they are only paying the top 5 out of 46 runners. I decide to bide my time. The guy to my immediate left has about as many chips as I do, so I have to be careful not to get into a spot where he can 3-bet me if he thinks I'm getting to out of line. Then, he gets into a confrontation with another big stack and he takes the guy out. He's now sitting on about 50k with 8 left. There are a few shorties, hanging on to 7-8k stacks. I have about 35k, and 3rd looks like he's got just under 20k. We spar a bit, and I manage to take a nice pot in a blind-vs-blind battle when my A8 misses the 6 5 6 flop with 2 hearts. I decide to see what the big stack is made of and bet into him on every street. The third bullet finally gets him to fold. Good thing no more hearts came, as that is what he says he was drawing to.

A few hands later and I'm the big stack with about 37k. I'm on the button. UTG smooth calls the 1600 big blind and she has about 6.5k total. Folds to me and I look down at Tc9c. Not the best hand, but it is suited, connected, and most likely 2 live cards. I raise to 5k straight. Folded back to her and she insta-shoves. She has 1.7k more. I think, and figure she's on a pair or a big A. I call, she shows AK offsuit. Flop is QJ4 with 2 clubs. Perfect flop, now I'm the favorite. Turn is a 6. River pairs her K and I take us down to 7, collecting my 3rd bounty. At $20 each, I only need 3 more to be freerolling. Maybe I'll make it.

Big stack from the earlier table is now the shortie and manages to double up twice. Finally get down to 6, and it is time for the next break. I knocked out 7th and can't for the life of me remember the hand, but I now have 4 bounties. I step out to call the wife, and then Predator to get a pep talk for the final table. Guy to my left has made a bit of a comeback and I'm down a bit after folding to a shove on a flop of K 2 4 from a mid-stack that called my PF raise of 3.5k with 500/1000 blinds. I had AJ. He later claimed to have the nut flush draw, but there were 2 clubs out there and my A was a club. I'd guess he had a middle pair and was hoping I didn't have AK, and took a chance. It was a good play, and his body language said he wasn't bluffing, so I made the laydown. We come back and I've won the chip race and see that I have the player to my left covered by about 4k.

The action out of this break gets fast and furious. I knock out 6th and the money bubble is over when I have KK in the CO and he shoves with KT off. 5th goes to the former CL from the early table when my AT flops an A vs his QQ. I now have 80k in chips just like that. The other 3 are all getting somewhat short, with only 58k left and 1500/3000 blinds. I start to steal a bit now with position and the stack to strike fear. I manage to crest at 88k and there comes a 3-way all in confrontation between the other 3. A7 hearts versus JJ versus KT hearts. The hearts actually come out and we are down to 3. The next hand I fold my 82 off in the BB when the button shoves. SB wakes up with AQ and it hits vs the button's 55 and we are HU.

I have a pretty good lead and am not very impressed with the HU play of my opponent. He's folding about 70% of his buttons without any movement from me. I make it up to just over 90k to his 48k when I find Kc7c in the BB. He min-raises. I decide that he's been weak and want to see what happens if I come over the top. He thinks and calls. He shows QcJc and I'm very very happy. Until the Q flops. But wait! There's 2 clubs! The turn pairs my 7, and now any 7, K or club and I win. The river pairs a 2 on the board and he wins with his 2 pair. Looks like my luck finally broke.

I manage to fight back to about 80k in chips again, as he's still playing very passive. I can take down just about any pot with a bet. If he raises or calls, I know he has something and I can slow down. I manage to get back up when he limps and I check my 72o. Can the hammer win? Flop is 2 2 4. He checks, and I decide to set a trap and check. Turn is a Q. He now bets out about 10k. I decide to smooth and get it in on the river. River is a T and he checks. I shove, he calls and I show him the bad news.

I finally make my first big mistake. I play Qc7c from the Button, raising to 18k with 3/6k blinds. He smooth calls. The flop is all rags. He checks, I check. Turn is the Qs, but is the 3rd spade out there. He checks. I debate pulling the trigger, but he has always bet his big hands so I check. River is a 4th spade and here's where I blow it. He stops dead and looks at his hand, doing a "spade check". I remember hearing a pro one time say "if they look back, they don't have it and they are trying to represent it". But this guy isn't into 2nd or 3rd level thinking, he's just playing his cards. I forget that when he bets 20k. I get to thinking about how he's just trying to represent it contrary to all the evidence I've seen thus far, and I call. He shows the As5h and scoops a big one. Crap.

I am unable to recover from that one. I have about 49k and we break. We return to 4/8k blinds and I'm pretty well into all in or fold poker. He's finally found a spine somewhere at the break and comes out swinging. My first hand is 74o in the BB, he raises to 20k. I fold. 2nd hand I have 82o. I fold. I am down to 37k and find 78o in the BB. He raises to 28k. I shove the other 9k and he calls with QT. Flop is Q Q 5. Turn is a 7 and I'm done. I manage to get 2nd, but I'm a bit disappointed in my mistakes at the end. I'm not complaining, and I get $785 and $120 for the bounties, so after the tip I take home a $760 profit. Not bad for a day's work.

So maybe I'm just getting unlucky at O8. Maybe it is time to return to NLHE for a bit and see if I can get some of the cash back and then move back to O8 when I have a decent BR again. So we shall see in the next few weeks. Look for me to be playing a bit of NLHE and see if I can get back on the horse.

I'll cya at the tables.

Help out someone with poker!

Hello all, thanks for stopping by. I'm here to ask for your help this time around. Someone in the poker community is having some issues with medical bills due to his fight with kidney disease. You can help out this Wednesday, Nov 12th at 9pm EST. Here's the details:

Full Tilt
Tournament #67971755
$10+$10
Bad Beat on Kidney Failure
PW: CailtyssRulien

Help someone out and maybe make some cash. I hope to see you there!

Superstitions and poker

Hello all. Welcome back. I'm a bit reluctant to post. Why? Silly superstition.

I haven't been posting much on the forums or here. Instead I've been playing. And winning. I've noticed that when I'm posting and playing, I tend to be distracted and not do so hot. I started to post a bit again on a forum, and my BR took a -$650 swing. Thank goodness I was already up big. It took a chunk out but I'm still up for the year. More importantly, I'm up since July 1.

What's the significance of July 1? Well, that's the day that I battened down the hatches and decided to be a more serious player. If you've been reading me for a while, you know that I tend to move around a lot between games and levels. I've also been known to make a fancy play or ten. After I got back from my Vegas trip, I decided to heed some advice. Thanks to Predator and Virge, I have become a winning amateur player. And with the stakes I play, that's saying something.

What changed? I had a semi-epiphany, if you want to call it something. Virge told me that he "hated to play with me because I was too fancy". He made me think. I went back and looked at how much money I was losing making "fancy plays" like check-raising with air. Granted, there are definitely times to do this, but I was doing it way too much in all the wrong spots. Dammit, Virge was right. I took that as a good time to fix those leaks that I've had.

Predator got me more into PLO8. I've been playing nothing but the Turbos over on Stars. I've worked my way up from the $16 level into the $60s with a nice ROI. I have taken a few shots at the $114s even. Right now my bread and butter are the $38s, $60s, and still some $16s. The $27s are poison for some reason. I haven't figured that one out, yet.

So with the two advisers off I went. Losing the fancy plays was tougher than focusing on a single game. I still pull a boneheaded move and raise with a straight out of position with 2 of a suit out there, but I'm getting better. I've started to get comfy 3-tabling. I'm playing enough to maintain a Silver status. I'm finally happy with my poker career.

Let's just hope that I didn't just jinx it. I'll cya at the tables.

Vegas Trip Report, Day 4+ THE WSOP!!!

Welcome back for the final edition of the trip report. I will try to fit the end of the trip in this space. Let's see how I do!

Day 4 was WSOP day, the reason that I was in Vegas. The $1500 PLO8, Event #43. The plan was to get to Rio @11ish, register, grab some lunch and a quick chair massage to get rid of the Day 1 jitters. Everything went well and I cabbed it over to th Rio, having missed the 11am shuttle. Called Predator from the cab to review the game plan and get a pep talk. Tight, aggressive. Don't be a wuss. Don't go passive and spew chips. Got it. Got registered and ended up at Amazon Blue, Table 27, Seat 2. I had been getting a lot of Seat 2 assignments so maybe that was a good omen.

Ran to the Poker Kitchen for Brunch. I'd finally managed to sleep in a bit in anticipation of the long day. Brunch was a Burger, fries, Diet Mt Dew, and a banana. Several people recommended the burgers, and they were right. Not a bad deal. Then I headed in and got a 5 minute "warm up" neck and shoulder massage. I was pretty tense as this was my first WSOP event. The rub down definitely helped get me to calm down and focus.

Got to my table with 10 mins to spare and did some rubbernecking. I saw John from PokerNews but he looked busy and I didn't bother him. Their media table was a row behind me. I watched people mill around and start sitting. No pros at my table when the cards went in the air, but there were a ton in spitting distance. Scott Clements, Gobboboy, Eric Sidel, Marco Traneillo were all at the adjacent tables, but no one at ours that I noticed. The guy in seat 3 started chatting me up and seemed nervous. He admitted it was his first event and had a few backers. I'd be nervous too. I had one person that asked to own 10% of my total trip, but I didn't have any specific backers for the tourney.

Then, the cards were in the air! I was officially in a WSOP event!

Got a bunch of nothing for the first 20 mins. I had one hand where the new guy to my left min-raised PF and I found AALL in the BB. I smooth called. Flop was 9 4 4. I bet out 250, he called. Turn was a J. I smelled a rat on the flop smooth call and check-folded the turn. He said "how did you know?" and showed me 99. The spidey sense definitely picked up on something and I'm glad I trusted the read.

The deck slaps Seat 3 square in the face for a bit. He's up from the initial 3k to about 7500. He's busted one guy in Seat 5. Then, the late arrivals start to show up.

There was one issue at our table. Seat 7 and 8 were empty but had chips to start. Blinds were being taken away for a bit, then they came in and picked up Seat 8. Finally, they picked up Seat 7 into the dealer's tray and loaded it up for a new buy-in. That's when we got our table Pro. DevilFish came and sat down in Seat 8 about 45 minutes into the tourney. Damn. Nothing like an Omaha expert. Bah!

A few minutes later Seat 7 shows up and he's got no chips. He bought in the day before and should have been blinding down. Now he gets a full stack back. Small thing, but still annoying. It is his BB when the floor goes off to "investigate" why he has no chips. The ruling in these events is that you can't post or play until your BB so he wants chips. DevilFish asks Seat 3 to loan him 1k so he can play until his chips arrive. The dealer tells us that will get him into trouble. He calls the floor. The floor says he has to wait for the chip issue to clear up and to skip him. Seat 7 gets pissed and gets up. By the time he's the button, his chips show up. He doesn't come back. Well, he didn't come back as long as I was there, which we shall see isn't much longer.

The hand that did me in came 30 minutes before the first break at the 1.5 hour mark. I find myself on the Button with AJ34, with suited hearts. This is a nice hand in position and I decide to limp with 4 in front, hoping for a big flop. I get what I need with a flop of J 7 2 with the 7 and 2 hearts. Checked to DevilFish who fires out 500. I smooth call and the others muck. This was mistake #1. I should have raised him out, but I want to scoop a big pot, not win a smaller pot. Turn is Qc. DevilFish bets out 1k. I count down and this leaves me with 875. I'm not going to be a wuss, right? Wrong! Maybe I was start struck versus DevilFish. I didn't think long enough about it or I would have come over the top here. Strike 2. River is Qd. Crap. My monster draw went down the toilet. DevilFish pushes all in and I stop and try to reconstruct the hand. What could he have that I could beat? I make error #3 in the hand and finally fold after thinking for a good 2 minutes. DevilFish shows a J and mucks. I say "Yeah, right. You had a Q to go with that". He claims KKJx. I start to think about it and realize that I just lost a pot that should have been mine. There's no way that he had AA or KK on that flop (I had the Ah). He's not going to bet out. My best guess is that he had a low draw, most likely he flopped 2 pair with a hand like A2Jx, or 23Jx. I had at least a chop and possibly a scoop. If I would have thought for 60 more seconds or asked him what he had to try to get some information, I think I would have called. Instead, I was weak and mucked.

Blinds hit me now and I get nothing playable. Check/fold in the BB. Call/fold in the SB. I get Ak23 double suited in the cutoff and call. Instead of pushing. Again. I don't think I have fold equity. Flop misses and I'm down to 225 at the break.

I leave and go kick myself for playing like a passive donk. I was fairly card dead except these two hands. I give myself a pep talk during the break and watch the 2-7 triple draw final table. 15 minutes later I'm back with a new attitude.

UTG I find A 3 5 J with the ace suited and push. 3 callers. Flop is Ks Js 8s. My ace is a spade. Finally! Now I'm up to 675. I can come back. The next hand I am in the BB. Seat 3 raises and DevilFish calls. Everyone mucks to me and I find AdKdAs7d. I push. Both call. Flop is Td 3d 5c. Seat 3 checks to DevilFish who pots. He folds. DevilFish turns over Ah 2c 7c Qs. He's got the nut low and backdoor flush draws. I'm in good shape to get up to over 1k. Until the turn brings a club. And the river. DevilFish scoops me and I'm out.

I don't want to dwell too much on the past, I have learned my lesson. I didn't have my head on right or I would have made the call earlier and not ended up so short stacked. But that's why we play, to learn and grow. Hopefully this is a growing experience and I plan to return next year. I might play in the LO8 vs the PLO8 as the structure was a little fast. If you didn't move much by the first break you were in trouble as you came back to 150/300 blinds. With a 3000 starting stack, you need to move early or you will be in trouble.

I learn that there have been 100ish players busting every hour from the original 720 that started. So looks like I probably made the top 450-500. At least I wasn't out in the first 10 minutes.

So I'm out and owe Bleu a C-note. Bastid. Prior to the break I did go look him up and he had a nasty seat. He was in Seat 9. Seat 1 was Joe Hachem. Seat 2 was Gavin Smith. Yikes. Good luck raising your button or CO there. Gavin was playing his normal run-over-the-table game and had a nice stack. Bleu was sitting on 5kish. I told him I was in big trouble and he smiled.

I go over and check out the side game action. There's an interest list for 10/20 O8 so I get on it, hoping it will fill with players that are busting out. Meanwhile, there is a seat open in 5/10 LHE so I take it. I mix up my play between TAG and LAG and it pays off when I get A3 suited in the BB. Player 2 to my left raises and 2 call to me. I call. Flop is 3 3 7. I check my set and the raiser bets again. One caller to me and I call, hoping to get maximum value. Turn is the case 3 and I check. Raiser bets again, folds to me. I call. River is a J. I check again hoping that he puts me on a middle pair. He bets and I'm able to check raise and get that last bet. It was dicey checking to hope to get that final bet, and some would say to bet out on the end. By checking I was able to get $10 more out of him. I show the trey and he mucks. He claims a middle pair. Hope it wasn't 7s or else I got lucky :)

A few orbits later they start the O8 game. They were only waiting on a dealer. I go and mark a seat but come back until the table fills. I only get 3 more hands in and the O8 game is ready to go. I pick up and move, up a little.

The game is typical for a tourney bust-out game. People are cautious, trying to not make the mistakes that they did in the tourney. Being Limit vs Pot-Limit, there are a few more loose players. I'm holding my own when 2 guys get up for dinner. Bleu comes over and announces that he just busted as well. Same type of hand that I had vs DevilFish, but he came over the top on the flop and missed. Sucks to be him but I give him his $100 last longer. He's on the LO8 list but they can't seem to fill seats in our game. We are the game that the floor has forgotten. They change decks and the cards are warped, badly. We ask for a setup change. No luck. Dealer #2 comes in and immediately flips one of my hole cards. I ask for a setup change again. Nothing. 3 hands later she flips ANOTHER one of my cards and I ask her to call the floor over. We finally get a new setup after the guy to my right threatens to start tearing up cards.

There's 3 ahead of Bleu but they still aren't calling off the list. The dealer finally tells him to just go get chips as we have been 6-handed for about 30 minutes, since Seat 1 took a dinner break. The seat to my left is open and I debate taking it so that Bleu can't have position on me. I decide not to be an ass and it comes back to bite me. Bleu gets in the game and the deck doesn't just slap him, it pounds him. There's a 73 year old Navy man in Seat 2 that looks like Popeye. He's a riot, telling stories and mixing it up with Bleu and myself. I decide to turn up the gambool and straddle. Bleu blind raises. People give us the "hey, this isn't 3/6, what the hell you two doing?" speech. The next dealer is one from the Venetian on Day 3 and looks at me and says "Uh oh, you're starting again?". We of course Straddle/Blind Raise again right away and he laughs. Too bad the money flows to Bleu for the next 2 hours. He starts selling chips from his pyramid to other new players as they sit as we can't get a chip runner (remember, we are the table that the floor has forgotten). He's up about $1200 in 2 hours. I'm kicking myself for not taking that seat.

Finally, the guy to Bleu's left gets up and I change seats, hoping to change my luck. I'm stuck about $550. Finally, the luck swings. I find A3JK in the BB right after I scoop a kill pot UTG with a good hand (but don't remember the specific hand). Popeye is in as well as 4 others back to me. I say "what the hell!" and raise. It scares out no one, Bleu included. Flop is 3 3 7. Again. I can't believe it. Maybe I can hit my quads again! Bleu checks out of the SB and I fire out $15 (it was a 1/2 kill game, not a full kill). Popeye Raises! He's my hero! 2 others call and Bleu mucks. I call and hold up my hand so Bleu can see and say "I don't know what I want on the turn" and BOOOM...there's the 3. I'm happy that Bleu kept his poker face instead of laughing his ass off. I bet it again. Popeye RAISES AGAIN! I love this man! One caller back to me and I decide to see how far this will go and raise. Popeye and the other just call. River is a 9. Now is the time to give you Popeye's tell. It was balls-on accurate. He would always announce his hand by saying what he was putting YOU on. When the 9 came he said "I bet that 9 hit you and filled you up, but I'm going to raise you anyway when you bet." He'd done this at least 3 times previously and shown the hand that he said that "he bet you had". I know he's got 99xx. So I bet. Sure enough here he comes with his raise. Other caller finally bows out, I'm guessing he was on the nut low draw with no backup. I raise. Popeye calls and I show him my 3. He shows 99A2 for a busted low draw. I love the low-draw only raisers and scoop a HUGE pot.

Next kill I win again, but it is only $120ish. I post a 3rd kill in a row and count up what I have. I've just had a swing of almost $1k in 3 hands and now I'm up 350ish. Ask Bleu if he wants to take a dinner break and tell him I'm not going to push my luck and I'm picking up on my BB. He says he's done too and we pick up on his BB. Popeye was a great guy and came over to shake our hands and wish us luck. He made the table a fun experience.

I get a $10 comp from the floor and we head to Bleu's favorite place at the Rio, the Sports Deli. He claims they have great burgers. I waffle as I had one for lunch but finally cave. It's much better than the poker kitchen's. It's huge. I can't finish mine. Bleu's GF calls and asks if he's coming home anytime soon. He says he still wants to play poker. She must ask if he's retarded since I hear him say "no honey, I'm not retarded!". I realize what she's asking for and give Bleu a hard time on the way to the car. On the way back to the strip he realizes that he's not retarded and drops me at the Mirage, one of the few rooms I have yet to play. He's off for a booty call and I head in.

There's not much action, even though it is pretty early (it was just after midnight when I arrived). I see that there are 2 different 5/10 O8 tables going and one has open seats. I ask if it is a must-move and the floor says yes. I decide to sit anyway. There are 2 other open seats. This game was really rocky for about an hour while players moved to the main game. Finally we get down to 4-handed. One is an old guy that sits out saying "only the house wins in a short-handed game!" We ask for a rake reduction and the floor grants a maximum $1 rake from each pot. Not too shabby so we continue 3-handed. I'm next on the list to move to the main game and the 3 of us are all under 40 and start talking. Turns out the other 2 are 2+2ers that post a bit on the O8 forum. One, who will forever be known as "final table Ted" or FTT is sheepish when his buddy tells me that he made the FT of the Binion's PLO8 on Day 2. He acts embarrassed about it and doesn't want his buddy telling people "Because it was only Binion's!". I'm at a loss. A FT is a FT. I'd be damn happy. Oh well, they are drinking. We decide to get a bit loosey-goosey and I end up down just $26 when they call me for the main game. I decide that it is time to go instead and give up my seat to the other two. I head back to crash prior to Day 5. I have a red-eye flight so I plan to play a bit before heading back to the grind of real life.

Wake up on Day 5 at 10:30ish and Ralph is ready to try out the Treasure Island room. He's heard good things about it from one of the forums he reads so we head over. The poker room was nice, but TI was a bit of a disappointment for several reasons. #1, it was not quite 11am. The poker tourney started at 11am and happened to be a bounty. $125 buy in with $50 bounties on every player. Not a bad deal. We hadn't had breakfast, so we headed to the deli near the Sportsbook. It is closed. It has breakfast items on the menu. Strange. We ask at the cage near there if there is anything open with breakfast food. They point us to the buffet or donuts in the coffee shop. The buffet is too long, we just need a quick bite as we have 15 mins prior to the tourney start. neither one of us want donuts. She points out that it is a 5 min walk to the food court at the Fashion Mall across the street so off we go. I get a KFC chicken biscuit, Ralph opts for an eggs and hash browns from the cheesesteak place. We wolf it down and head back 15 minutes late for the tourney.

Within 20 minutes I have 2 bounties. The deck is finally cooperating with me and I have built up to about 5.5k from the original 2k starting chips. I would have had more, but both bounties were shorties when I got to them. I take out a 3rd and now I'm sitting on $25 profit. Things are going well. Ralph busts after he is crippled in a 3-way pot with a nut flush draw that misses. He heads to the Sports Book to watch the Germany Soccer game that he put a bet on. I get up to about 14k by the first break.

Coming back from the first break we find reason #2 that the TI sucks. Apparently, they have decided to drill for oil or something in the hallway right outside the poker room. I ask the dealer (who is only 2 seats away) what they are doing on 3 separate occasions and can't hear his answer. All I hear him say is "they say they are using the muffled jackhammers!" and the rest is lost in the noise. I'm getting a headache quickly and don't have my mp3 player to at least try to cut out some of the noise.

Back from the break and I take a hit with TT vs AK all in. Would have been bounty #4 and put me over 20k. He flops his A and I can't improve on my 2-outer. I battle back to 12k when they break down to just 2 tables. The guy who busted Ralph comes into the 4 seat and I'm in 9 (we are 10-handed). He is UTG and min-raises to 1600 with 400/800 blinds and a 100 ante. Ralph tells me he's been playing junky hands and getting lucky. 2 callers to me and I look to find AA. I think for a bit and push. He whines about "what? this is my first hand!!" finally he calls. Folded to me and I say "you're in bad shape" and show my AA. He has AQ offsuit. I'm very happy with the flop of K T T. The 9 on the turn is a bit troublesome. And the J on the river just plain sucks donkey balls. He counts down and I find myself with 1800 instead of 25k+. Crap. That's what I get for telling him he's in bad shape. DAMN YOU POKER GODS!!!

Next hand I have QsTs in the CO and push to win the pot, knowing that I have no fold equity, as there were 2 limpers in front adn the bounty is $50. Button calls as does AQ boy. Flop is A 9 4. AQ checks, others check to the button. He pushes all in to isolate (thanks for the protection now, you tool). AQ whines and folds. Others fold and I say "I'm in bad shape" until I see his 9 6 off. Wow. I have 6 live outs. Too bad none make it, and I'm out. I cash in my $150.

Ralph is playing a 1/2 limit game. I tell him I can't stay with the jackhammer going off 10 feet away and he agrees. He picks up and we over to the Sushi place in TI (which I have heard great things about) only to find it closed. Strike 3 for TI. At 1:30. I guess they don't serve lunch. We decide to hit the food court again for lunch and decide what to do. I finally decide that the AA cracked is an omen and I'm going to nap, then get up and hit some small NLHE games at the IP or nearby. Ralph heads back to Mandalay Bay and I get some shuteye. I get up an hour later and wander the IP for a bit. I get on the 1/2 NLHE list but the games aren't giving up many players. An hour later I go wandering. I finally give up and head up to the room to pack. I grab a cab at 9pm for my 11:30 flight and head home to civilization.

I count down my BR after the cab ride and dinner at the airport and realize that after expenses and without the WSOP buy in, I would have left Vegas +300. Instead, I'm -1.2k. But the WSOP was my reason for going, so I'm not upset. I was able to play (mostly) great poker, with just a few mistakes that I've learned from. I got some great experience that I can build on next year.

That's right, I'll be back for at least one WSOP event in 2009. Beware, Vegas. Meanwhile, I'll be online or at the Argosy near Cincinnati, OH. I'll cya at the tables.